That Was Then, This Is Now

PEI goes back to the future.

Twenty-five years ago, PEI conducted a study that explored future trends in petroleum marketing operations. By 1983, we had already experienced a decade that had seen the emergence of self-service gasoline, vapor recovery, unleaded gasoline, electronic dispensing equipment, alcohol fuels and the beginning of debit-card marketing. We engaged in the study to anticipate what additional changes could be in store for the industry over the next ten to twenty years.

The study made 36 predictions, most of which were right on the money. For example, participants believed that by the early 1990s:

• 90% of all dispensing pumps would be electronic.
• Some tank testing program would be required for each underground storage tank system.
• Unprotected steel tanks would be prohibited in new underground installations in at least 40 states.
• Chain stores, car dealers and specialty vehicle service centers would handle 95% of automobile repairs and service.
• Non-traditional retail petroleum marketers (factories, supermarkets, hotels, restaurants, amusement parks, etc.) would account for 10% of the retail gasoline market.

A few of the predictions missed the mark completely. For instance, the study predicted that during the first half of the 1990s:

• The major oil companies and the major independent marketers would account for 80% of all retail motor fuels sales in the major metropolitan markets.
• Automatic fire extinguishing systems and television security monitoring would be required at all unattended fueling sites.
• Unattended fueling stations would dispense more than 25% of the retail motor fuel sold in the United States.
• Temperature compensation devices would be required at the retail pump in at least 25 U.S. states by the year 1995.

That was then, this is now. So what changes do you think are in store for our industry in the next ten years or so?

Any PEI member who knows the answer to that question, with relative certainty, is arguably in a prime position to prepare his company for new market opportunities.

But, of course, no one can look into the future with absolute clarity. At best, we can only make an educated guess about where the industry will be ten or twenty years from now.

Are you currently engaged in that type of critical thinking? Are you able to stretch your thinking into the future? And just how do you do that? I suggest you assemble your own group of industry experts—manufacturers, other distributors, colleagues, family members, customers—that you can call on to get some handle on what the future holds and how your company can position itself in light of those inevitable changes.

Louis Pasteur once said: “In the fields of observation, chance favors only the prepared mind.” If you and your company know something about the future and are prepared, you will be able to field the ball when it gets knocked your way and have enough flexibility built in so you can take advantage of the future.

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The PEI Journal • Fourth Quarter 2008 • Volume 2, No. 4 • Contents are Copyright © Data Key Communications, Inc.
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